The price of some raw materials will start to callback, which will affect the price trend of electrode paste
Market Overview
This week, the mainstream price of China's electrode paste market remained stable, and the mainstream operation of the industry was still low. Recently, the prices of some raw materials began to callback, but the overall range was not large. The industry was in a strong wait-and-see mood. Enterprises mainly carried out order production, delivered goods smoothly in terms of logistics, and mainly supplied by surrounding areas. The overall start-up of the mainstream industry is still low, mainly because the pressure on the start-up of the downstream ferroalloy and calcium carbide industry is obvious after entering the heating season, and affected by the Winter Olympic Games, many alloy enterprises stop production and reduce the demand for electrode paste. As of December 16, the reference price of electrode paste was 5900 yuan / ton (a < 4 in Northwest China); ρ< 58； 5: 10.0-15%), the market price is regionalized, the enterprise difference is obvious, the differentiation is serious, and there is vicious competition.
Supply side
This week, the overall weak operation of China's electrode paste supply. The operating rate in Northwest Ningxia, the main production area, is running at a low level. At present, it is under the inspection of the environmental protection supervision team. The mainstream large manufacturers say that they ship normally and have no significant impact temporarily. Some manufacturers start to stop production based on long-term customer orders. A new enterprise stops production this week. It is expected to resume production next month. The specific time of resumption is to be determined. The electrode paste in North China and Inner Mongolia is mostly supplied to calcium carbide plants and alloy plants in the surrounding areas. However, due to the shutdown of many downstream ferroalloy enterprises, the output has declined and the demand has weakened. The production of enterprises in Central China is good, and an enterprise in Henan is producing at full capacity, and the trading and investment is OK. Some enterprises now start to reduce the load production. The main reason is that Henan belongs to the "2 + 26" city, with great pressure on environmental protection. In addition, affected by the Winter Olympic Games, severe weather pollution warning and shutdown of downstream metal manufacturers, there is a great possibility of shutdown in the heating season. During the shutdown of an enterprise in Southwest China, it is expected to resume production around December 20 and carry out the replenishment operation. The enterprises in South China and Guangxi are limited, and the output is reduced by nearly half. It is expected that the subsequent inventory increment may be increased. Shaanxi is mainly supplied by surrounding ferrosilicon and calcium carbide enterprises, and the farthest supply is to Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The transportation situation is acceptable.
Demand side
This week, the average price of calcium carbide Market in China is about 5150 yuan / ton. Most manufacturers wait and see temporarily. Previously, the prices of wait-and-see manufacturers in Wuhai and Urumqi League have been reduced one after another. At present, the cost of calcium carbide factory is controllable, the supply of calcium carbide factory is sufficient, and it is difficult for individual manufacturers to ship, but most manufacturers have fixed customers, which is good for the trading of some electrode paste enterprises.
Raw materials
This week, the price of medium and high sulfur calcined coke continued to decline, with a market reference price of 3600 yuan / ton. The market trading of medium and high sulfur calcined coke was relatively good, and most enterprises shipped well; The price of medium temperature asphalt remained stable, and the reference price was 6200 yuan / ton (Northwest China), which was mainly due to local goods preparation, the price decline was blocked, and the price of electrode paste was bad.
Profit aspect
This week, the downstream demand is limited, the start-up is still not active enough, mainly receiving goods at a lower price and purchasing on demand. The raw material cost of electrode paste enterprises continues to be high, the profit space continues to shrink, and even some enterprises are in a state of long-term loss.
Inventory aspect
Limited electricity and energy consumption, combined with limited production in heating season, lead to the operation of reducing the load of electrode paste enterprises, and the overall inventory shows a downward trend.
Future forecast
The cost side price of raw materials has been corrected, and there is a continuous downward trend. The downstream demand orders are poor. It is expected that the high price of electrode paste may be lower next week, with an expected range of 100-300 yuan / ton.